|submitted by crypto_coiner to peercoin [link] [comments]|
A couple of days ago on the Dash Nation Discord longtime community member toknormal shared some thoughts about Bitcoin and altcoins. It's shared below in its entirety in the hopes that it'll be thought-provoking to those on this subreddit and may spark some conversation.submitted by TrustThyself to dashcrypto [link] [comments]
TL;DR: This post is about an emerging media agenda to "kill off" altcoins so that bitcoin can grow. The (faulty) perception by bitcoin maximalists that altcoins are a deadweight. How they are going to attack us. Why this is a crucial moment to try to kill off alts and how Dash as a community can constructively address it to its advantage. See also #markets [channel in the Dash Nation Discord linked above] where I've posted some observations about the very long range nature of the Dash market VS bitcoin and its prospects.
I usually try not to write long posts anymore. But my nerves are getting the better of me and all charts are sending the same message so I decided make this a bit of a ramble.
Lately I've been debating (on and off) with the maximalists in the BTC Wall Observer thread (who are very nice people and not trolls) but are convinced that alts are going to get wiped out. I've noticed a common theme in all the conversations that suddenly took me aback - along the lines of "ok - this is it, Bitcoin is now established, we don't need alts any more". Then I saw Max Keiser suddenly declare himself to be a "bitcoin maximalist" out of the blue.
This made me think for a bit because whatever one thinks of Max Keiser, he's not a monopolist. I also noticed how consistent his arguments were with those that I'd encountered in the "Wall Observer" thread and other places such as various Twitter feeds.
The common mantra was that "Bitcoin can do everything".
I'd like to bring this agenda to the community's attention - i.e. that there's some kind of co-ordinated effort afoot to kill off alts going on (even from people who don't believe in monopolies) and offer some tips as to how to address it.
Why now ?
Without knowing much about the politics, it's easy to see why people like Max Keiser might be - albeit guardedly - positioning themselves as "maximalists" at this particular moment in time. Also why there might be a wider coercive effort to kill off altcoins. You only have to look at the Bitcoin dominance charts. (To find this, go to coinmarketcap.com and find the little "Dominance" link right at the top of the page - quite small).
Alts have "eaten" bitcoin's lunch in 3 distinct phases, each of which lasted around 3 years. The first was the "dawn" of alt coins around 2013 when we saw Peercoin, Feathercoin et al emerging and that died off around halfway through the post 2013 bear market. The second was in 2015 when bitcoin was doing basically nothing but consolidating and Dash hit its second ATH on the ratio of 0.02+. The third was the "perfect storm" of ICOs and Bitcoin contentious hard forks when Bitcoin's very existence was in jeopardy. Now we're about to commence a new altcoin dominance rally.
The "maximalists" are aware of a potentially massive impending "Phase 4" altcoin capitalisation beyond anything that has been seen to date. If you look at that chart you can see we are on the cusp of completing a consolidation which - if sustained - will lead to a new influx of growth. You can also see that the growth profiles of altcoin dominance is asymmetrical - there are very long bear markets but right at the end there's an almost vertical, massively invasive bull market. That's what the monopolists are trying to mitigate.
My contention is that this is good for bitcoin. It is natural because bitcoin is a reserve asset that can only capitalise from utility assets that lie above it in "Exter's Pyramid". There is no conflict between bitcoin and other crypto assets and Dash should easily have a 2x to 10x growth against BTC in front of it if BTC functions as a reserve asset in the crypto space. That growth will ultimately find its way into bitcoin, being the reserve.
But many maximalists don't see it that way. They see competing assets as draining capital, brainpower and marketcap from bitcoin. This is ridiculous and not true, but it doesn't matter - they are going to start a media war (possibly worse) against alts. So we need to be aware of this and be able to field authentic challenges to their attacks.
How to address institutional challenges ?
There are 2 core themes IMO:
A natural monopoly is a monopoly in an industry in which high infrastructural costs and other barriers to entry relative to the size of the market give the largest supplier in an industry, often the first supplier in a market, an overwhelming advantage over potential competitors.Economics
What is a "Bitcoin maximalist" ? It is someone who's advocating that cryptocurrencies are a natural monopoly. Natural monopolies are well known and researched phenomena in economics. We can test this thesis against the definition of natural monopolies and compare each aspect of the definition as to how it applies to cryptos. Intuitively, it seems ridiculous that there can only be one crypto but the media war will try to portay it as such. Dash has made huge advances and we must not take our eye off the ball at this crucial time when altcoins are at the cusp of a new growth phase.
The monopolists have noticed this "end of phase" period and they think we haven't.
Having been engaged in much of this debate lately I've been wondering if I should ditch Dash and go all in Bitcoin as I realised that altcoins in general are at a watershed phase. Is there going to be another bull market against BTC or isn't there ? I've spent a lot of time thinking about this, engaging bitcoin maximalists on other threads and so on. Disclosure - I'm holding BTC as well as Dash. But the truth is I'd rather Dash succeeded and grew against bitcoin. It would be better for bitcoin, better for crypto and better for the world because diversity is a measure of freedom and like it or not, Dash is now one of the significant digital assets.
Regarding 1, I will link to one of my posts on the Wall Observer thread. Obviously it is a huge subject and many will have opinions but
High Infrastructural Costs
Dash has already overcome these as a "barrier to entry". The Dash network hashrate is huge in comparison to what's required to secure a viable cryptocurrency. It has also captured enough of a relative market size to be significantly traded, reviewed and invested in. Over Dash's lifetime, ROI is better then bitcoin. (See Dash/BTC).
William Baumol Criteria
According to this definition, "multi-firm" production would (and is) making cryptocurrency cheaper. If Bitcoin had been unique in the market it would not have had to compete with other blockchains for miners for example. We would not have had mining profitability ranking that tell miners which coin is most viable for them (almost never bitcoin). We would not have had proof of stake. Therefore Bitcoin does not meet the William Baumol criteria for a natural monopoly as "multi-firm" production has made the bitcoin network more efficient (by demonstrating competitively its inefficiencies)
Cost of Production
The original concept of a "natural monopoly" was made by John Stuart Mill according to the Wikipedia entry for "natural monopoly". His motivation was that in the absence of a natural monopoly, prices would reflect the cost of production.
|How many hours a day do you work?||How many hours a day do you work? - 6.5 actually trading, and probably another 3-4 doing analysis, scanning, finding stocks for the next day, preparation in the morning, etc.|
|Are you in front if the screen for the whole trading day?||Are you in front if the screen for the whole trading day? - Generally, yes. Unless I have a hot morning at which time I just quit and take the day off and go to the beach!|
|How do you handle being alone for the whole trading day if you are in front of your screen ask day?||How do you handle being alone for the whole trading day if you are in front of your screen ask day? - Well, I talk to a lot of other traders on Skype and/or Google chat, and I try to get out of the house and trade in different locations to keep things interesting. It can get lonely, but I have a lot of friends and have no problem inviting people over to chill while I trade and it benefits them too cause a lot of people want to learn it and sitting here w/ someone doing it full time is a really cool and fun way to learn!|
|What do you use for analyzing your trade history?||What do you use for analyzing your trade history? - www.tradervue.com, and lots and lots of Google doc spreadsheets lol.|
|However by the end I couldn't handle being alone and stuck in my chair all day. Did you have to cope with any of that?||I'm curious as after the last 4 years or so where I've been studying and watching, I feel I've got a nice KISS method. I did 2 months of full time paper trading to see how I did. However by the end I couldn't handle being alone and stuck in my chair all day. Did you have to cope with any of that? - Yes it is definitely an adjustment. I worked in IT so I was pretty much glued to a computer all day anyway, so it wasn't AS much of a change for me, but I do read a lot and hear a lot that day traders start to go crazy after a while just from the lonliness/lack of human interaction. That's why I do things like this Reddit, and my courses that are taught via live webinar though. Keeps me from goin nuts and going postal ... on myself!|
|If I do go part time how do I keep my life balanced so I can watch the trades closely but not be consumed by them?||The Importance of Happiness: Link to justanotherinvestingblog.blogspot.com|
|What's your P&L ?||What's your P&L ? - I try to shoot for a $500-1k gain per day and keep my loss days when they do occur to $250-500. Per trade, I try to risk no more than $200-300 depending on market conditions, and during certain markets I will increase or decrease risk if I feel it is worth it. I also have a detailed risk management plan that I use to make sure if I have a string of losses they are cut to $0 within 3-5 days so I can re-evaluate, and if I have a string of wins, risk increases based on my wins so that I can capitalize when I'm on fire and minimize losses when I am in a slump.|
|What degree do you have ?||What degree do you have ? - I have a bachelors in MIS (unrelated to finance, lol)|
|Are you interested in HFT ?||Are you interested in HFT ? - Not really. As an IT geek I do find it fascinating that there are applications that can scalp all day long and consistently make money over the long term, but I just do not believe that in such a dynamic environment that anything like that is really sustainable. It would just be way too much work for me to try to develop something to trade for me, plus it would take all the fun and challenge out of it!|
|With how much money did you start ?||With how much money did you start ? - I originally started investing with only $1k. I swung that very slowly (up and down) while saving from my job(s) up to about $5k. I then injected another $5k of savings and started getting very serious with trading with around $10k. Then I lost about 50% of that in like 2 months (lol). The whole time I worked full time and saved every penny I could until I had saved up enough to open a PDT (pattern day trading) account with $25k and also became fully immersed in trading talking to other traders and taking a few trading courses here and there to tweak my strategy. Now I trade that account (I keep $26.5k in it and build it up as much as I can each month then withdraw back to $26.5k and that is how I get paid) and I have a small $5k account that I use for swing trades and experimental strategies.|
|Are you interested in working for big firms (GS, JP, City...)||Are you interested in working for big firms (GS, JP, City...) - Not really. I have debated it in the past but I think it is just way more satisfying to do it on my own. Also, I don't want to be part of the firms that everyone complains are corrupt/evil/etc. For me it is more fun and exciting to just trade on my own, and it is more rewarding because if I decide I want a raise I just work harder and trade better and boom! I get a raise!|
|I'm sure you're familiar with the high failure rate of day traders (80%-98% within two years, depending on your source). Not trying to be an ass, but how us your investing method different than the typical day trader?||That's actually a very valid question. My method of picking stocks or buying/selling really is not different at all. What is different is that I have the emotional discipline to cut losses quickly and let my winners run. Most traders that fail, and I have seen many come and go even across the very few years I've been doing this, fail because they do not cut losses quickly and they are not good risk managers. I have always been frugal and very cautious with my money, and I am the same when I trade.|
|I trade very systematically, and analyze everything I do with statistical analysis so I always know the stats between each type of pattern I trade. For example, if you look on my tradervue link in the OP, you'll see tags like IFB (intraday flag break), IBD (intraday breakdown), TTB (triple tap breakout) identifying the patterns I am trading so that I can go back and find all those tags and see how profitable they are, by tag. I also very systematically trade with a 2:1 reward to risk ratio at a minimum, so if I am risking 10 cents on a trade I will always be able to make at least 20, 50 cents for a buck, 1 buck for 2 bucks, etc. It takes a lot of self control to actually cut those losses where they cross that level of risk, but if you can do that there is no reason 98% of people could not be profitable in this profession.|
|Obviously there are a ton of other factors that go into it, and I am still very new so who knows, maybe I will blow up and go insane and fail and go broke, but for now I'm doing ok, so I can only speak to what I currently know.|
|BTW, my blog is very reminiscent of my overall strategy and trading philosophy if you want to check it out (it's free). I just recently rolled it from Blogger to Wordpress so some of the links might point back to my old blog but all the info is at both places: Link to www.greenbartrading.com|
|If you have a consistently-performing strategy, how come you aren't rich yet?||Consistency does not equal wealth. I live comfortably on what I make but I am not trading to become rich, really. I trade for a living because I like the freedom it offers me, being able to work for myself and go wherever I want and take my work with me (for example spending more time w/ family/friends, traveling, etc)|
|To answer your question, I am very new in this game so it would be foolish to assume I should be rich already. My strategy works so that I can pay my bills and have money to spend on the things I like and the things I want to do, but I am still limited to the money I have in my account and the buying power that it gives me. If I had millions of dollars in capital and $20m in buying power, sure I could use similar strategies and probably make $100k a day but it takes a long, long time to build up that kind of power in a trading account.|
|It is a common misconception in trading that as soon as you have a consistent strategy you will instantly be able to scale it to become super-wealthy. That theory leaves out the obvious aspects of being able to handle the swings in P/L emotionally and especially the issue of liquidity. I can identify a pattern on a chart and say I'm going to buy 100k shares and make $10,000 in 5 minutes, but actually getting filled on that 100k shares is a totally different story. It is much harder to execute strategies like mine when you are playing with huge sizes. That is why I try to rack up small gains with a consistent win rate vs just trying to home-run every trade and get rich quick.|
|What do you think of companies that are making software for retail investors to engage in HFT when they don't even know anything about coding, etc?||I don't know much about that field so I don't want to say too much, but in general I think that like many people in this business they are just out to make a quick buck, by selling something to others who are trying to make a quick buck.|
|Don't you think its bad advice to tell a beginner to trade on 2:1 margin?||Not at all. Margin is only dangerous if you don't know how to use it. If you understand that trading a $5k account on 2:1 margin means you're trading with $10k, but you still need to manage the risk as if you have $5k, you'll be fine. When I first started getting really serious with trading, I actually traded a $10k account with 10:1 margin but I never used more than 2:1 or 3:1 because I just didn't want to risk that much.|
|The margin is only bad if you let it get out of control. Also, it is impossible to short without margin and shorting is vital if you are going to be consistently profitable in the long term. Most people say shorting is more risky but if you short properly, managing risk with stop losses just like when you go long, then there is absolutely no difference between shorting and longing in terms of risk. I don't generally recommend swing shorting for beginners, only because news releases can make things really ugly, but in general, trading on margin and shorting is fine as long as you are smart about it and you understand it (which is not that hard with a little reading).|
|Edit: To clarify, most of the risk associated with margin comes when people get greedy. If you have a $10k account with 10:1 margin on it and you dump $100k into a stock and risk $2,000 to make $4,000 sure you could make 40% on your account but you could also lose 20%. It makes much more sense, especially with a small account, to trade w/ a reasonable amount of margin so that you can maximize your gains without destroying your account w/ too much risk. This is also just personal opinion. Whether or not trading on margin is a bad idea really depends on the person. I know people who have 50:1 margin and trade 100% in cash, and people who have like $5k and trade as if they have $100k cash rather than $95k of it being margin, lol. It all depends on your personality and how well you understand the risk you're taking.|
|"...there is absolutely no difference between shorting and longing in terms of risk."||Fair enough. That is true. In my experience though I have only in very, very rare cases seen a stock double in an overnight session unless it was a penny stock or something very thin being pumped. In the stocks I generally trade I almost never see that. While I do see large gaps I don't really trade stuff that tends to gap more than 100%.|
|You can lose more than 100% of your investment overnight through shorting, which you can not do by going long. Stop losses do not guarantee that you can prevent this from happening - crazy things can happen while the markets are closed.||In theory, you are correct though, and it is important to realize that for sure!|
|While this might be rare, it's still a critical difference that people should be aware of.||Edit: BTW, it's worth noting that nothing in the market is guaranteed. I believe that if you trade with the fear of losing 100% on an investment overnight you are, in general, being a bit too paranoid. Yes it happens, and it blows bigtime when/if it does, but it is not common enough to really worry about IMO. Just something to be aware of.|
|Can you explain what it means to invest on a margin? I understand that it is investing money that you don't currently own, but where is the additional money coming from?||Usually the broker. If you lose too much, they will do a margin call, which basically means they can protect themselves by forcing you to sell your positions to protect their money if you're investing with it.|
|This risk is generally mitigated though. I trade on margin every day but I am still only risking a very small percentage of my capital on each trade. If I were to hold trades for longer term timeframes, I might worry more about margin calls but still, in most situations you are going to be pretty well protected by stop losses unless the stock is making huge moves of 40%, 50%, 100% etc which is not all that common in the names I generally trade. In my experience I have not seen margin calls until people have lost like 70-80-90% of their account values on a single trade already. If you can't cut your losses before that point you probably should not even be trading :)|
|How do you feel about Fannie and Freddie? Release from conservatorship and skyrocket? Or wind down and loss of shirt for the common shareholder?||On Fannie and Freddie I never touch them as they are super thick and riddled with manipulation. There are certain stocks I just do not trade and those are two (FNMA/FMCC)|
|Ariad Pharma (ARIA) - Thoughts?||ARIA is actually another on my ban list. Don't know anything about it fundamentally but statistically I have lost money almost every time I traded it so I just don't anymore.|
|Zogenix (ZGNX) - Thoughts?||ZGNX is a great trader. I actually recently bought 2500 shares at $3.59 average (building on a 500 share swing I held from $3.35 the day before) but like a fool I sold it flat after it didn't immediately take off. I caught the top of that recent GIANT 5m share block buy and it killed my average price so since I did not want to risk $800-1000 on the trade I opted to exit flat when it didn't go right away. I don't really know anything about the company itself but I have traded it several times over the last couple years and it usually behaves pretty predictably, so I like it for day/swing trading.|
|How much did you start with when you began day trading?||When I got serious about day trading I started with $10k and traded through a prop firm (as an independent contractor so I was working on my own and only received whatever money I made, no paycheck or boss). I did that because it offered me 10:1 leverage and good trading software (DAS Trader Pro). Once I had the cash built up from that I opened a $25k ameritrade account and now I use that ... I bailed on the prop firm because their software was $125 a month and thinkorsim through TDA is free.|
|What is your daily routine? Do you spend some time reviewing the daily news before the markets open, do you spend time afterwards reviewing your performance, etc?||Yes to both questions. I generally get up around 8:00am EST and do a quick breakfast and shower, maybe go for a run or get outside to do something active. Then I will go through Yahoo Finance inPlay (finance.yahoo.com/mp) and scan for any major news headlines (earnings misses/beats, FDA news, etc). I go through the stockmarketwatch.com premarket section (Link to thestockmarketwatch.com and look at anything that is gapping up or down and use finviz.com to determine why they are gapping. This gives me a bunch of ideas for the day. Also, I usually have a small watchlist prepared from the night before, which is prepared with a scanner I use called StockFetcher (www.stockfetcher.com). I pay 8 bucks a month for that (super cheap actually for how powerful it is!)|
|Right at 9:30 I am mostly just watching stuff. I seldom trade the first 15 minutes only because it is way too volatile and it is difficult to determine a pattern in only 15 minutes. After 9:45 I will look to see if any of the morning gappers held their gaps and perhaps find a couple trades in those ideas. I also have alerts set at various prices from the night before which will be triggering the whole time giving me ideas.|
|After the trading day, I usually just shut down and forget about trading for a while and then later at night I go back and upload all my stuff to tradervue.com and put in comments/details about why I took the trade, where I bought/sold, if it was a gain/loss, etc and post it publicly on twittefacebook. This keeps me honest and makes sure I am always on my game.|
|Also, each morning I am usually watching my open swing trades to make sure there is nothing crazy going on with them and I will usually sell into morning spikes to book profit on those and possibly re-enter later on to add back to my full position size.|
|Finally, every once in a while (maybe once a month) I will just wipe the slate clean, eliminate my entire watchlist, and build a totally new one just to keep my mind fresh and eliminate any bias I have developed toward individual stocks.|
|What kind of additional research you conduct when swing trading in comparison to daytrading?||I always check to see when earnings are, and make sure that there are no major catalysts coming up (FDA panels, upcoming contract renewals, etc). I also go back on the chart for a year and look at all the major moves (gap ups, gap downs and big spikes/drops in price) and research why they moved, so that I can react quickly if I happen to see something similar happen. For most of my swing trades I don't tend to care much about fundamental stuff (PE Ratio, income, etc) because they are not long-term enough for that stuff to make a difference. I am a 98% technical trader, but definitely do pay attention to fundamental catalysts like earnings and things of the like.|
|One other thing is I will use sites like tickerspy.com to check the performance of the overall sector, and keep the general market (SPY) in mind as there are good and bad times to swing trade so I don't want to be swinging long when the market is going down and vice versa, in general.|
|I have an X amount of money I want to invest, but I don't have the slightest idea of how things work in the brokerage world.||The "I'm cheap and don't wanna spend any money" (aka me) answer is to hit up investopedia.com. Everything you should need to know to get started is there, you'll just need to find it all yourself. You need to learn (at a minimum) order types, commissions, different types of trading, margin, and risk management. I teach all this stuff in my course and it's super cheap relative to the other crap that's on the market so feel free to hit me up via my website and I will hook you up w/ a discount code if you want. Let me know if you have any other questions!|
|Also, I don't have time for learning how to be a broker.||The salesman-y answer is that you are the perfect candidate for my Fundamentals of Active Trading course. Check it out at my website in the OP.|
|How about brokers investing my money? How foes that work? How do I find a reliable broker?||Funny you should ask that - you are one of many who has asked me that very same question and the short answer is I have no idea, because I don't like anyone else touching my money, lol.|
|I believe through any retail broker (scottrade, etrade, ameritrade, optionshouse, etc) you can probably get a dedicated licensed broker to invest for you while you do nothing but your returns in that situation are probably going to be minimal after the broker takes their cut and also all the commissions/fees and probably a service fee for the service itself. I really don't know though, so that's something you could ask a local branch or call one of the retail brokers and see if that is a service they offer.|
|I just have never done it because I always wanted to do things on my own so I understood exactly where my money was going and knew that I wasn't being ripped off.|
|Hope that helps!|
|Very good, thanks for your answers and good luck with your trading. Is it bad luck to say good luck to a broker? Lol.||I don't know, but I'm not a broker so it doesn't matter! I'm just a lowly day trader, scraping by in my underwear, day by day. lol|
|I just wanted to tell you that you occupy the job I would hate the most, and thus I have immense respect for you.||Thanks Joewith! It is definitely not for the faint of heart. I have had many people tell me I swear at my computer a lot when I'm trading, haha, as if that's going to make a difference. For me it is all about the challenge though. I love the challenge and the fact that if I fuck up it is 100% on me, and I can't blame anyone else!|
|Question: do you plan to/think you can get rich by doing this, considering the risks involved?||To answer your question: It is not my plan but I do believe it is possible. I actually, right now, make less money than I did when I worked full time, but I am a lot happier because I have the freedom to do whatever I want whenever I want. In the future I do anticipate being able to far surpass my old level of income but I don't expect to be filthy rich. I would like to see my business grow to $1m+ within a few years and see annual trading profits in the $250-500k range on average, but I have a long way to go to get there. Before I left my job, my best month was September of 2013 in which I made $19.5k on a $25k account which was pretty awesome, so I know it is possible to do amazing things with this profession if we just work hard and manage our risks well.|
|What advice can you give to an 18 year old looking to trade? I am going to college next year and I have relatively no expenses, so I'm not afraid to lose a little bit of money. I just put some of my money I have saved into a brokerage account and am just trying to see what I can do with it.||First, make sure that you REALLY can afford to lose that money. If you can that's great! The best way to get your feet wet is to just dive right in. Risk management is key. You can learn technical analysis pretty easily and use it to identify support/resistance levels on the chart. Always make sure that your risk is at a maximum, 1/2 your potential reward. This will make sure that if you take 100 trades, you lose $50 50 times and make $100 50 times, you have $2500 in loss against $5,000 in reward or a net profit of $2500 (less commissions).|
|Basically, do not assume that trading is a get rich quick scheme. If you do you will blow up your account faster than you can blink. Trading is a numbers game. Manage your risk and understand what you're investing in and always have a plan to enter AND exit the trade. If you trade with no plan you are doomed.|
|It's great you're starting to invest as young as you are. If you're a disciplined, controlled individual you will find this is a fantastic way to make extra money and possibly even make a living. Check out my website and look into the Fundamentals of Active Trading course...it might be perfect for you for right now. Email me from the contact page if you decide you're interested and I'll hook you up w/ a discount code.|
|Have you tried different apps for trading? Wich one is (for you) The Best?||Yep! I use Thinkorswim from TDAmeritrade currently. Here is an analysis of four platforms I have used w/ their pros and cons: Link to www.greenbartrading.com|
|I have a finance degree and am very interested in transitioning to day trading for myself full time. What do you use for a trading platform? I have been looking into Cobra Trading and others that cater to active traders.||I use Thinkorswim through TD Ameritrade. I also have used Lightspeed, Scottrade Elite, and DAS Trader pro. I did an analysis of those four here: Link to www.greenbartrading.com|
|I haven't heard of Cobra Trading, but I also know Interactive Brokers is very popular for day traders and active traders.|
|What is your opinion on index funds? I often wonder if day traders actually get higher returns or if their gains are just generally in line with the collective increases in the market. I'm not saying that's true in your case I'm just curious!||I use index funds as a guideline for what to do in my day trades and swing trades. Most of the professional, full time and well-managed day traders I know are significantly outperforming the index funds. Personally, I don't know if I am because I have not been doing this professionally long enough to have the data to decide. I would say that most of the traders I know are definitely not inline with the market, but are proportionately in-line. For example, if they generally outperform the market, they will outperform it even more when the market rips, and if they generally underperform the market it will get even worse when the market starts to tank. I personally specialize in high-momentum stocks (stuff that is moving on earnings, news, fundamental catalysts), and many of those stocks simply do not care what the market does. They are going to go up (or down) regardless of the market because the volume and the feagreed/euphoria surrounding the news/catalyst outweighs general market sentiment.|
|Thanks for your answer. As a side note, are you familiar with day trading cryptocurrencies? I am a long term investospeculator of them myself but think day trading them might be a bit too high risk.||I assume you're referring to things like bitcoin. If not, I don't even know what a cryptocurrency is, lol. If so, I don't know anything about trading them nor do I care to. Like you said, they are extremely volatile and way too risky. I stay away from very risky investments like penny stocks and bitcoin and try to trade only things that have decent liquidity, are easy to get into and out of, and that are not going to be too susceptible to manipulation by people with way more money than me.|
|Yes I mean bitcoin and its similar alternatives e.g. "peercoin". I agree its definitely highly volatile and I'm quite skeptical myself, I do find it quite interesting though.||Yeah it is fascinating. I actually have a buddy who recently randomly threw $1k at bitcoin on the news that Congress was planning to make it a real currency (or something like that?) and tripled his money in three hours, haha. Fun stuff, but way too crazy for me.|
|Do you like showing people your fancy monitor setup when they come over?||Haha! Actually, I only have one monitor :) That setup that you see in the link in the main post is all I use. I flip between the trade tab where I actually click buy/sell and the charts tab which has three different charts on it (a daily, a 30 min and a 5 min chart) as needed. Generally, since I am day trading and not investing, I only care about the 5 minute chart for snap decisions. I will look at the 30 min and daily to find ideas and identify support/resistance levels on the chart but when I trade, probably about 75% of my time is spent on the screen you see which can all fit on a 15" laptop!|
|I do have a 24" external monitor which is usually what I'm using, and occasionally I'll open my laptop to throw up my google chats w/ other traders so I don't have to hit alt+tab 8 million times throughout the day. lol if I did have a fancy monitor setup though, I would definitely show it off!|
|In trading, KISS principle works best IMO :)|
|Congrats on making the leap! I'm a slow-motion swing trader by comparison, just a step below Graham-style buy and hold. I'm at the saving up stage until I can start playing weeklies with 5k or so. I thought it funny that your ama appeared close to one about flipping items from thrift stores on eBay, as that's what I do now. My question would be, how often do you rebuild your watch list, and how large do you let it get? I know some traders who've been making a living on maybe 5 different stocks a year for the past decade. I like your thoughts on why you're not branching into options yet- when something works, you don't put it down to go try something else! You said you like to get out of the house sometimes while trading- do you ever have issues with WiFi speeds doing this? Or are your trades loose enough that a couple seconds one way or the other isn't a big deal?||I rebuild my watchlist every night and mark stuff that I think is ready the next day. For any given day I usually only have 5-6 stocks that I am watching very closely. The rest are just kind of there as "back of my mind" ideas for later. At the end of the day if something didn't go then I will keep it on the list to stalk for a while and use those items if I run out of ideas during the day, to see if there are any opportunities in stuff I had been watching a couple days earlier. Then I usually wipe the whole thing clean and start over about once a month as it crosses 40-50 symbols because that just gets annoying and too much to manage. Interesting question about the wifi - yeah slippage can be annoying if I don't have a good connection, but I usually account for slippage in my position sizes so that if it slips a few cents it won't break me. If I have a slow connection I will usually scale back my risk and be more selective due to the added risk of disconnections, slippage, etc. That used to happen to me all the time at work: I worked in a lab where I couldn't have my cell phone and I'd be in a trade with no stop loss set (since I didn't want to get wicked out!) and the internet connection would randomly drop and I'd have to run out of the lab to get my phone and put in my stop loss or sell from my phone, lol. It cost me a bunch a couple times, so I started to take that into account when trading.|
|I also know traders who only trade 1-2 stocks and just know them so well that they can hit them over and over and make money for years. Those are a special breed of trader, IMO, and I would probably get bored out of my mind trading the same symbol every day lol.|
|Do you find technical analysis to provide reliable indicators of stock movements?||I do find technical analysis to be reliable. It is a self fulfilling prophecy in a large way so it doesn't really provide any sound long term strategy but for short term strategy it works great. I use probably 98% technical analysis in my trading. EDIT: To clarify I mean that technical analysis is not a reason to make a long term investment in any one stock or financial instrument. However technical analysis can be used to make consistent short term gains over the long term.|
|Have you ever traded options, and what is your opinion of them?||I've never traded options. I hear they are great for reducing risk and capitalizing with a small account but my philosophy in the market is to do what works until it doesn't work anymore. For me, trading equities has worked well so I'll keep doing that until it doesn't. Maybe someday I will get into options, but I have no plan to do that currently.|
|I don't know if I've ever heard a trader say it could be boring to only have a couple companies to worry about! That worries me more, having dozens and trying to keep an eye on all of them.||Haha it's a personal thing I guess! I guess it could be nice to trade the same company over and over again but I like the excitement of finding new ideas all the time and the challenge of learning about different companies and how they behave in the market. I have even traded some companies that turned out to be total frauds and it's funny to me because I look back and see that almost all my trades in them were shorts and when they finally get crushed I am like HA! I KNEW IT!|
|I appreciate the ama, I'll be checking out your site.||Thanks for the kind words - this AMA is a ton of fun.|
|Thanks for the detailed reply! I'm looking into trading and learning about options and the thinkorswim platform.||Really interesting stuff. Perhaps in 30 years I will lose faith in technical analysis as well. Really though, I am pretty confident because more than I trust technical analysis I trust my risk management skills, and they, not technical analysis or fundamental analysis or economic analysis or anything else, are what ultimately make me my money.|
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